The Value
Premium is Alive and Well
John
Rekenthaler of Morningstar wrote an interesting piece on value and small cap
investing and the
data of the outperformance of these sectors of the market. He was also
commenting on an article over at Advisor Perspectives.
On small cap
outperformance he writes:
Actually, there is some question whether
small-company stocks really do all that well. The "small-company
effect" was the first academically documented anomaly, as Rolf
Banz’s 1981 paper predated the initial
academic research on value investing, and was once widely believed. It stands
to reason that smaller companies are riskier businesses than are larger firms,
and thus deliver higher returns. But performance over the past 35 years has
been disappointing, particularly when the theoretical gains are adjusted for
the hard reality of transaction costs.
On the value outperformance he notes
Has the value premium dissipated over time?
Happily--as I did not have the data immediately at hand--Huebscher answers his own question. He cites Ken French’s research as showing that value stocks outperformed by 4.57% annually before 1992, and by 2.78% annually since.
Happily--as I did not have the data immediately at hand--Huebscher answers his own question. He cites Ken French’s research as showing that value stocks outperformed by 4.57% annually before 1992, and by 2.78% annually since.
The surprise is not that the
advantage declined, but that it continued to exist at all. After all, the
market risk associated with value stocks appears only rarely. In addition, that
danger is moderate rather than severe because the alternative to value
investing, growth stocks, also gets whacked by a market crash. Yes, growth
stocks figure to lose somewhat less under such circumstances, but smacking into
the pavement after a 35-foot fall, rather than one of 40 feet, offers scant
consolation.
I would agree even at 2.78% that
outperformance is quite large considering the research on this is so well
known. I think the explanation here can only be behavioral what Bill Bernstein
calls “the bozo effect”. But those Bozos” don’t only include individual
investors but fund managers as well.
The fund managers may not be Bozos in
the sense that they are behaving rationally based on their personal rewards.
Such managers are fearful of “tracking error” underperforming the market which
leads to outflows from their funds…which reduces their compensation and even
puts their job in jeopardy. And value
strategies work in the long term. Price eventually returns to value but by that
time has come plenty of short term performance chasing cash has moved out of
the mutual fund that has been buying value stocks. And fund managers are paid
according to assets in their funds. In other words in career management the
managers may not be such “Bozos” they are maximizing their wealth if not that
of the investors in their fund.
In any event I don’t think the
evaluation of the small cap portion of strategies is sufficient. Small cap
growth stocks are consistently the worst sector of the market in terms of
risk/return. This is the domain of bubble stocks.
When one looks at the outperformance of
small value stocks the data shows the small value premium effect is alive and
well.
Below is a graph of growth of wealth
for the last 20 years for the S+P 500 and the msci small value index, the
Russell 300 small value index and the DFA (Dimensional) Small Cap Value fund as
well as a table of returns. The outperformance of small value is clear.
You can click to enlarge either of these:
You can click to enlarge either of these:
But the value investor must be patient
and willing to tolerate periods of underperformance. During the tech boom of
the late 1990s there probably wasn’t a strategy that looked worse than tilting
to value stocks. Kudos to John Rekenthaler for admitting he was among those who
had a negative view of value tilted indexing investors. From a recent article of his over at Morningstar advisor: Rekenthaler writes:
Last week, I exchanged emails
with an investor named Alex Frakt, who mentioned that I had addressed one of
his questions in an earlier version of this column, way back at the start of the
New Millennium. What question, I asked. Which was the better fund company,
Vanguard or DFA, he responded.
Oh, dear. I do recall. This was
what I wrote, in May 2000:
DFA’s position
is illogical. Effectively, DFA believes that when allocating among investment
styles, one should ignore the market’s judgments, but that when making
stock-by-stock decisions, one should strictly obey them. Curious.
"At heart,
DFA is by and for engineers. The company collected a ton of data, analyzed it
extensively, and came up with an indexing scheme that it views as better and
more-sophisticated than "naive" indexers like Vanguard. All this
analysis is predicated on the premise that the future will mimic the past and,
therefore, that the initial inputs are correct. I dispute the premise and
therefore I dispute the results. More to the point, so has the market. In its
18 years of existence, DFA’s small-value tilt has harmed it more than helped.
You would have made a lot more money following Vanguard’s cap-weighted approach.
Surely that’s gotta account for something, too." …
Although I
couldn't have predicted that DFA's small-company and value-stock tilt would
thrive from that day forward, thereby propelling the company’s lineup to
spectacular gains, I certainly should not have implied otherwise. There was
nothing wrong in contrasting DFA’s claims with its then-lackluster results. But
I should not have left the analysis at that. Quite the contrary. Early 2000 was
the ideal time to mention that, at long last, DFA might be ready to fly. …
In explaining
what was wrong with his analysis he notes that one reason was ::
Succumbing
to the recency effect
That
one hurts. I knew very well that the most common investment mistake was
assuming that the future would resemble the recent past. After all, I had been
in the business for 12 years, had made my share of such assumptions, and had
watched many others make the same error. For that reason, I had become quite
the contrarian. I also knew that small-company and value stocks were
desperately out of favor and were priced for a rebound. But even so, I stepped
into the trap. The force is strong with the recency effect.
I
give Mr. Rekenthaler a lot of credit for writing about his error…it is a lesson
for all investors.
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