The first part of his argument is for mean reversion: the outperformance of US markets vs emerging has reached extreme levels and thus is ripe for a correction. He presents this graph to support his argument
When the chart data is positive, the S&P 500 has outperformed emerging markets over the past year; when the data point is negative, emerging markets have outperformed.
However I found the second part of his argument based on the low valuation of emerging markets vs the US. My general approach is that in the long term price returns to value thus the following table presented in the article presents some interesting numbers
|Index||Actionable ETFs||P/E As Of 04/30/14|
|U.S. (S&P 500 Index)||SPY||18.69|
|MSCI Emerging Markets Index||IEMG, VWO||12.20|
|MSCI China Index||GXC||9.35|
|MSCI Russia Index||RSX, ERUS||4.67|
|MSCI South Korea Index||EWY||10.31|
|MSCI Turkey Index||TUR||10.640|
Looking at the list above Turkey and Russia would stand out as having high political risks relative that could well outweigh any compelling valuations.
Also of note is that IEMG the ishares core emerging markets etf holds just under 5% of its assets in Russia
Another etf worthy of consideration is GMF Emerging Asia which has a p/e of 12.39 roughly the same as IEMG the overall emerging markets fund. It office significant exposure to China without the need to add a single country fund to a portfolioL GMF allocation:
Fund Country Weights