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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

What Goes Around Comes Around...and the Patient Long Term Investor Gets Rewarded


Seems in the fickle world of active managers performance chasing is alive and well. Long term asset allocating investors will get a lift as their allocation to Europe performs well and will be trimming their positions rebalancing  as the performance chasers pile in. Via Bloomberg

Europe gets the nod as the best place to invest for the first time since at least 2009 in a Bloomberg survey of financial professionals, unseating the U.S.
Thirty-five percent of those surveyed in the Bloomberg Markets Global Poll said the euro zone would be among the one or two markets offering investors the best opportunities over the next 12 months.
It was the first time that Europe came out on top since the survey of traders, analysts, money managers and executives who are Bloomberg customers began asking that question in October 2009. The U.S., with a 33 percent share, fell to second, the first time it’s not been No. 1 since November 2010. 
Here is a one year chart of VGK, the Europe ETF vs SPY the S+P 500..think there is some performance chasing going on by those surveyed above ?
Total return year to date: Europe 9.9% (VGK) S+P 500 3.3%
The article notes the following:
Russia, Brazil and China were seen as markets to avoid over the next 12 months, with investors saying the Chinese economy is in the worst shape in two and a half years.
Looking at the chart below of FXI the China ETF vs the S+P 500 I am not so sure the next survey will have the same results. FXI is up 26.6% year to date.



Thursday, April 23, 2015

Should Dual US/Israeli/Citizens move their investment accounts to Israel ?



There are 2 fundamental principles to investments which are essential to successful long term success: controlling taxes and expenses. Based on those 2 criteria alone the case for US/Israel dual citizens maintaining their investment accounts with US brokerage firms is a very strong one.

Beware the dreaded PFIC
PFIC Passive Foreign Investment Company is the biggest potential pitfall for US Citizens investing in non US mutual funds. A summary of the PFIC rules is here more information is available on the IRS website.

The bottom line for investors is that foreign mutual funds including Israeli funds and  ETNS (teudat sal) fall in the category of PFICs. As a consequence investors face far higher taxes and more complicated reporting requirements when investing in Israeli mutual funds. This is the case even if the Israeli fund invests in the same strategy as the alternative US fund.

The tax paid on the Israeli mutual fund that is a PFIC can be more than twice the tax compared to US  funds which are not PFICs. Also investments in PFICs require additional reporting to the IRS which may create additional expenses.

The lowest cost investment alternative to create a diversified portfolio is through US based exchange traded funds (ETFs). These can be purchased in a self directed account at minimal cost at a discount brokerage firm or through a managed account of ETFs offered through investment advisors/asset managers.

Can I purchase US exchange traded funds in an Israeli account ?  Yes, one can purchase US ETFs in Israeli brokerage accounts or find an asset manager that manages a portfolio of US exchange traded funds. However, not all Israeli brokerage firms will open accounts for dual US/Israeli citizens because of the paperwork/reporting requirements.

Generally speaking the expenses associated with investment accounts and asset management are significantly higher in Israel than the United States. There ae a few discount brokers in Israel that do have fees and commissions lower than those charged by the major banks’ investment departments asset management services are generally higher in Israel than can be found in the United Staes..

Individual stocks and bonds purchased outside of the US do not create PFIC issues.

As a dual US/Israeli citizen can I open a US brokerage account ? Yes, although there are many US brokerage accounts that are no longer interested in opening accounts for US citizens residing abroad there are others that will. However, many US mutual funds will not accept investments from non US residents…that is not the case for exchange traded funds.

Special Tax Status for New Immigrants to Israel (Olim Chadashim)
New immigrants are exempt for ten years from Israeli taxes on foreign passive (investment) income and capital gains including those on assets acquired after the date of immigration. Such income of course is subject to US taxes. Returning Israelis that fall into the category of “toshav chozair” receive such beneftits for ten years.
Additionally proper tax sensitive management of the account can reduce potential Israeli tax liabilities at the end of that ten year period.  This exemption gives a significant tax advantage Israeli tax liabilities at the end of the exemption period.

(None of this is to be considered authoritative tax advice or recommendation of specific securities or investment strategies you should consult the appropriate professional(s) for advice taking into consideration your specific circumstances)
Mr. Weinman offers a full range of services related to investments for dual US/Israeli citizens and can be reached at lweinman@lweinmanadvisor.com











Saturday, April 18, 2015

If You Think These Two News Items are Unrelated....You Probably Haven't Worked in The Financial markets

NYT:

Bloomberg Terminals Suffer Widespread Failures


The bigger fear on European trading desks was that regulators may determine that Bloomberg’s dominance is actually a systemic risk, in need of some regulatory fix, on top of other recent technology additions.
“We recognize that Bloomberg is a monopoly, and we probably lean on them too hard, but it’s a hard nut to crack,” the head of a credit trading desk at a large bank said on Friday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.....
One sales trader, based in Geneva, said his company had a few dozen Bloomberg terminals and used them mainly for buying and sellingexchange-traded funds and credit and for research. None of the firm’s terminals were able to connect for about 2 hours 20 minutes but worked later in the day, he said.
When asked what problems the failure created, the trader said: “Problems? Simple: No prices. Nothing. So you can’t do anything at all.”
He said that simply switching to a Thomson Reuters terminal was not an option for some. “People are used to going through ’Berg and so it’s confusing for a lot of us who never use Reuters,” he said.
It was hard to immediately determine the failure’s effect on specific financial markets. Some traders said that the failure encouraged the negative sentiment that pushed stock prices around the world lower.











FT


Friday, April 17, 2015

The Best, Most Honest Explanation I Have Ever Seen in the WSJ (or anywhere else in the financial media) About Short Term Market Movements


WSJ money beat today

"Every once in a while, equity markets lurch, leaving investors stumped. Where’s the kerbstone that tripped them up?
Sometimes there isn’t one. The market just trod on its own shoelaces. That could well be what happened in Europe on Friday morning as Europe’s leading indices dropped between 1% and 2% amid a dearth of the sort of news that generally triggers big market moves. And Germany’s 10-year bond yields lurched ever closer to negative territory. U.S. stock futures were down 0.67% at 7.35 a.m. EDT."


On the other hand you can find this at cnbc  "explaining" today's move

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

All Emerging Markets are Not the Same

I have questioned several times in posts on emerging markets that the "asset class" is not a very useful one as it includes markets with extremely divergent characteristics.

The most important distinction in the emerging markets groups is between Latin American and Asia. Asian economies have strong current accounts positions many of them in surpluses, benefit from lower commodity prices, and have displayed strong economic growth. While the Latin American countries the largest of which are Brazil and Mexico are dependent on commodity exports and have weaker national accounts.

The recent run up in shares in China and Hong Kong has further increased the performance differential between Emerging Asia, total Emerging Market Indices and Latin America.. Over the last  3 years Emerging Asia (ticker GMF) has produced a total return of 36.9%, total emerging markets 11.3% and Latin America (ticker ILF) -28%

Graph below shows growth of $100,000

3 Year Returns Growth of $100,000 Emerging Asia (gold) Overall Emerging Markets (blue) and Latin America (green)

What about the long term future ? A recent bloomberg article reports on longer term projections for global economic growth. The forecasts see a growing share of global GDP for Asia most notably China and India. Other Asian economies are expected to grow strongly while growth in Latin America will remain slow.

Get ready for a new economic order. In the world 15 years from now, the U.S. will be far less dominant, several emerging markets will catapult into prominence, and some of the largest European economies will be slipping behind.  
That's according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest macroeconomic projections that go out to 2030, displayed in the chart below. The U.S. will just barely remain the global leader, with $24.8 trillion in annual output. The gray bar represents the $16.8 trillion gross domestic product projected for 2015, and the green bar shows how much bigger the economy is expected to be 15 years from now. The country, worth 25 percent of the world economy in 2006 and 23 percent in 2015, will see its share decline to 20 percent. 
China's GDP will grow to more than twice its size today, helping the Asian powerhouse to almost entirely close its gap with the U.S. 








India, ranked eighth for 2015, will climb past Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan to take third place in the world ranking. The International Monetary Fund calls India "the bright spot in the global landscape." The country will have the largest workforce in the world within the next 15 years, the IMF notes, and among the youngest.