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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

This "Top Guru" Admits His Forecasts Are Only a Bit Better Than A Coin Flip

Mohammed el Erian of Pimco is never shy about speaking publicly with his market forecasts. Yet Investment News reports:
...(there has been a ) 16% advance in the S&P 500 since July 2, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index surged 12% in September and October, the biggest rally for those months since 1998.

Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC, which oversees the world's biggest bond mutual fund, said in May 2009 that rising government deficits and regulation would hold gains in equities and bonds below historical averages. Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's co-chief investment officer, said recently that his projection has a 55% chance of coming true.

don't like that forecast ? here's another from the same article:

“Of the leading economic indicators, one of the most important is the stock market,” said Mr. Birinyi, whose Birinyi Associates Inc. advised clients to buy stocks in March 2009 when the S&P 500 began rising from a 12-year low. “The market's saying something, and it's saying the economy is going to be surprising on the upside

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