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Monday, May 16, 2016

Update on the Forecasts of the "Smart Money"



Oil:


Bloomberg May 16

Goldman Surprised by Sudden Oil-Market Turn as Glut Vanishes


Goldman cut its crude price forecast for the first quarter of 2017 to $45 a barrel from $55 previously, but sees oil rising to $60 by the end of that year. The bank expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2016, versus 1.2 million predicted earlier
Crude Oil One Year


Currencies

Is the sun setting on the dollar rally?

Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity


Just when investors thought they’d finally made a good call in the currency market, the dollar’s advance messed it up.

The U.S. currency on Friday capped its best week all year versus its major peers, shortly after hedge funds finally switched to betting on dollar declines, known as going short. That’s not the only wrong move foreign-exchange managers have made this year -- an index tracking their returns shows they’ve failed to turn a profit in 2016.
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US DOLLAR INDEX YTD

Where is the "smart money" placing its money now ?

Gold is the best-performing major metal this year after silver amid rising concern over negative rates in Europe and Japan and whether the Federal Reserve will be able to tighten further. Demand jumped to the second-highest level ever in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council, and billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer has said gold’s rally may just be beginning. Investors are being driven to gold on a structural shift in investment demand, according to Bernard Aw, a strategist at IG Asia Pte.
The great gold rush of 2016 is gathering pace. Holdings in exchange-traded funds have now surged by a quarter, with investors taking advantage of lower prices over the past two weeks to enlarge stakes on rising concern about central bank policy making worldwide

Based on the performance of the "smart money" trades in currencies and  oil...let's say some skepticism would be warranted.
Gold one year: