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Thursday, September 10, 2015

Goldman Sachs Forecasts $20 Oil..You Be the Judge of How Reliable that forecast is

  • September 11, 2015
  • Surplus seen persisting into next year 
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its oil price forecasts as it sees a global glut persisting into 2016 on further OPEC production growth that may force prices to drop as low as $20 a barrel.
    The bank trimmed its 2016 estimate for West Texas Intermediate to $45 a barrel, from a May
  •  projection of $57, according to an e-mailed research note Friday. 
  • Goldman also reduced its 2016 Brent crude prediction to $49.50 a barrel, from $62
Over the last several weeks, crude has been whipsawed by conflicting expectations out of the Middle East: Iran is seen as potentially increasing exports as it reaches a deal that curbs its nuclear ambitions, but at the same time, instability in Iraq and Libya have knocked more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil offline.

Where to next? Forecasts for crude, gas, and natgas: Goldman

3m
6m
12m
WTI Crude Oil$99$96$90
Brent Crude Oil$108$105$100
RBOB Gasoline$3$3$2
NYMEX Heating$3$3$3
NYMEX Nat. Gas$4$4$4
UK NBP Nat. Gas$71$72$78
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
  • Brent crude ended 2014 at a bit under $60

1 comment:

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SL 113.20
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