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Wednesday, December 10, 2014

A Note on The Markets This Time of Year

By this time of year the senior portfolio managers and traders are off to Vail, the Alps, Palm Beach, Fiji or other luxurious vacation retreats. Many have received the bonus and are just interested in holding onto their gains for the year.

Left on the trading desks are the younger less experienced folk. They have the following  instructions

1, Don't initiate any new positions no matter how many opportunities you may see,
2. If you are a dealer get rid of anything sold to you in the market as soon as possible.
3. Execute if securities fall to levels left by the boss or in the case of short positions rise to the specified level
4 Make every effort NOT to disturb the boss on vacation unless the securities held in the portfolio start dropping sharply..or in the case of short positions rising sharply.

Enjoy your holiday even though your vacation will be far shorter than mine.

The net result markets: are extremely volatile and moves. They  can be intense particularly on the downside especially when reversing the trend during most of the year.. Any picking through "values " in the market will come in January

In the currency markets one can see this in the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

Euro per $

Of course the biggest example is Oil:

In the equity markets one can see the fallout in lower energy stocks (VDE) below.

VDE Energy Stock Index

In the bond market the impact can be seen in the high yield bond market whose biggest industry representation is in energy.

HYG high yield bond index

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