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Monday, August 18, 2014

Notes from around the markets and te web
Europe stocks firm as mood improves
Wsj page one same day

Euro Zone's Economy Fails to Grow

I wrote a few weeks ago in an optimistic tone on Europe and Germany perhaps a bit optimistically. The Germany ETF (EWG) is down  year to date. The reason most cited for the declione is the Ukraine crisis. Export to the Ukraine make up 1.3% of German GDP and major German companies are more dependent on Asia than exports ot the rest of Europe.
With such large declines in German stocks it might be time for long term investors to take a look

Data for he week ending August 6 reported record outfolow from high yield bond ETFs
.WSJ August 16

Investors Pour $680 Million Into U.S. Junk Bonds in Latest Week Latest Inflows Snap Four Weeks of Declines

Investors poured $680 million into funds dedicated to low-rated corporate debt in the week ended on Wednesday, according to fund tracker Lipper, snapping four weeks of declines that included the previous week's record $7.1 billion weekly outflow.
Observers pointed to a change in sentiment in early August for so-called junk bonds, as institutional buyers stepped in hunting for bargains. U.S. high-yield bonds lost 1.33% in July, but

Past Three Months High Yield ETFs Last Three Months Total Return
Short Term
HYLD 1.0%
HYS     .1%
SJNK   -.1%
Intermediate Term
HYG 1.1%
JNK . 9%

HYG 3 Months Price Only

Risk Off Trades Change Their Character A Bit
Generally markets concerned with political uncertainty go into risk off” mode selling lower credit bonds and buying government bonds and selling emerging market stocks.
This time is a bit different
Over the Last 3 months
Emerging markets etf IEMG +6.1%
Emerging Asia (GMF) +12.1%
SP 500 +5.0%

US Govt (GOV) unchanged 

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