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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

How Could This Chart Not Influence Your Future Asset Allocation ?


 From the FT (above)


Developed vs Developing Country Economies as % Of World GDP

Since 1999  emerging and developing countries = 36%  of world gdp 2009 48%

Advanced economies went from 64% to 52%

Is there any possible reason to think that this trend will rverse itself ?

MSCI World index of Developed Markets in dollar terms over the period -19.5$
MSCI Emerging Market Index  +94%
BRIC Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China)  +173.5%


from the NYT
As long-term investments go, emerging markets seem to have a lot going for them. On average, developing countries have less sovereign, corporate and household debt than developed countries. Their economies are also growing faster than industrialized ones. Merrill Lynch predicts that emerging market economies will grow 6.3 percent next year, while the global economy expands by 4.4 percent.


Emerging markets are eclipsing their developed peers in other ways as well. Imports to the BRIC nations are likely to surpass imports to the United States for the first time ever in 2009, according to Morgan Stanley.

For the moment, the developing world is the engine of global growth. Emerging markets accounted for virtually all of the year’s growth in global output, because developed economies shrank or were flat. Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70 to 75 percent of the growth in global output “for the foreseeable future,” said Mr. Conway of Schroders.

Developing nations are also assuming a bigger role in the world economy. Morgan Stanley predicts that developing countries, including those in the Middle East, will account for 36 percent of total global gross domestic product in 2010, up from 21 percent in 1999.






 

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