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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Fund Outflows Keep Coming



The mutual fund outflows for the first 2 weeks of October exceeded those of the entire month of September. And the money came out of stock AND bond funds indicating utter panic as the money basically is moving into cash equivalents, one step away from going under the mattress. My gut feeling at this point is that a significant market recovery around dow 10,000, s+P 500 around 1000)and/or a testing of the lows (around 8,000 on the dow,s+p500 around 850) will spark more outflows, flushing out most of the remaining "weak hands".

At that point there would be what is probably close to record amounts of cash on the sidelines, which when put back into the market by market chasing individual investors would lead to a significant market rally.

But please take this, like any other short term market forecast, with a massive amount of skepticism.

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