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Monday, May 3, 2010

Best of the Weekend

Some good material after the Goldman hearings this week

from the FT Folks in Las Vegas take umbrage and being compared to Goldman's wall street tactics:



When Goldman Sachs executives faced rhetorical fire from angry members of a US Senate committee this week, much of it invoked a city that had little to do with the bank but everything to do with negative public attitudes towards Wall Street.
Goldman, which has been charged with fraud by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, "had less oversight than a pit boss in Las Vegas", said Claire McCaskill, a Democratic member of the committee. Mark Pryor, a fellow Democrat, was more damning. "You're market-makers but you're also playing in that market," he told the Goldman executives. "Instead of Wall Street, it looks like Las Vegas."
The US investment bank has denied any wrongdoing and been defending itself vigorously. Also taking umbrage, however, are the people of Las Vegas.....

"It's very offensive," said Shelley Berkley, a Democratic congresswoman whose district covers the city's gaming strip and casinos, ranging from the luxurious Bellagio to the rather down-at-heel Binion's Gambling Hall & Hotel.
"Las Vegas casinos might not have clocks but we have rules, we have regulations, we have odds for sports betting," she said. "Everyone knows what the rules are and no one is getting ripped off."....

....."The reality is the gaming industry is very well regulated," said Ms Berkley. "What happened on Wall Street would never have happened in a Las Vegas casino . . . it's the most well- regulated industry on the planet."
That sentiment is echoed by gamblers interviewed by the Financial Times this week. Most said they were aware of the risks involved when they gambled.
"When you come to Las Vegas you know you'll lose some money," said Cheryl Westland, who was visiting from California and playing slots in the Tropicana. "What I'm not prepared to do is lose half the income on Wall Street that I've spent my life saving - but that's what happened."
Rob Clegghorn, president of a carbon stainless steel company in Ontario, was making his yearly trip to Las Vegas. He enjoyed a drink while playing a slot machine in the Mandalay Bay casino, one of the largest in the city.
"The odds are pretty slim and if you win it's a bonus," he said. "But I know the rules here and they don't change."
Bret Arends of the WSJ on 4 lessons for individual investors from l'affaire Goldman Sachs

it's a timely reminder that, for many big financial institutions on Wall Street, we're simply customers to be sold a product.The case is also a great example of how not to invest. You could go a long way in this life just by observing the behavior of wealthy and powerful investors in Abacus and then doing the opposite.
Never assume the big money is also the smart money.
What are the lessons?
1 Never put too much faith in a bank.
Typical Wall Street bankers have three priorities: their own bonuses for the year, their bosses' bonuses and their own stockholders. Customers -- you and me -- come a very distant fourth. It's a mistake to forget this
2 Think twice before buying any complicated financial product.
It still baffles me that investors are so willing to buy complex "synthetic" products that the banks have cooked up in the back room. These are usually a poor deal (for the customers, if not for the bankers).
That's because, even when they're not being put together as a sucker's bet, they're often being put together to sock you with high fees.

3 Be wary of investing in something you don't understand.
In the world of investing, the easiest way to end up looking really stupid is to try to do something really clever....

When it comes to investing, humility and common sense will go a long way. Investors in Abacus 2007-AC1 would have been far better off investing in some really boring blue-chip dividend stocks with business models like selling hamburgers or shampoo.

4 And when in doubt...
The doomed product was hustled by Goldman's Mr. Tourre. There's one simple question that the customers could have asked him that would have saved them a lot of grief, as well as about a billion dollars:
"How much of your own money are you putting into this?"
When all else fails, it's not the worst question to ask your broker. His reaction may tell you what you need to know.


The Goldman Sachs testimony put into interesting focus the issue of fiduciary responsibility which I have mentioned before in this blog.  As I have noted registeres investment advisers (like myself) are held to the fiduciary standard they must put the standards of their clients above their own. Brokers are held to a lower "suitability standard" in providing advice to their clients and have fought hard (successfully) to prevent the fiduciary standard from being extended to the under the financial reform legislation. The difference in the two standards was abundantly clear when Senator Olympia Snowe and others asked the Goldman execs if they had an obligation to act in the interests of their customers. The blank stare she received from the witnesses said quite alot imo.

Friday, April 30, 2010

As Predicted on March 22 The Little Guy Is Late to the Party...

and gves a nice bonus to those that have been in for the long haul


Wsj today

Funds Take In $12.58 Billion

NEW YORK—Long-term mutual funds had inflows, or net buying, for the latest week on continued strength for bond funds, while stock funds in the U.S. and abroad again reported inflows, according to the Investment Company Institute.
Total estimated inflows were $12.58 billion the week ended April 21. For more than a year, the bulk of investment in mutual funds has gone to bonds, which typically thrive in a lower interest-rate environment. Meanwhile, stock funds have failed to consistently attract new interest despite the stock market's sharp rally.
Stock funds had inflows of $4.76 billion in the latest week, up from $2.14 billion a week earlier. U.S. stock funds had inflows of $2.86 billion, while $1.89 billion was added to foreign stock funds.

The chart below of the SPY the sp 500 etf showsthe largest spike in volume this year since Feb. coincident with the recent mkt rise.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

THE WSJ RedefinesThe World of Finance

Holman Jenkins in the op ed section of the wsj today

First off, no security is more derivative than a share of stock, which is not really ownership of a company (though it's usually claimed so) but merely a right to whatever cash management deigns to share, plus a right to whatever is left over in a bankruptcy, plus a right to participate in corporate governance in whatever limited ways a company's bylaws permit.

from investopedia

Investopedia explains Stock
A holder of stock (a shareholder) has a claim to a part of the corporation's assets and earnings. In other words, a shareholder is an owner of a company. Ownership is determined by the number of shares a person owns relative to the number of outstanding shares. For example, if a company has 1,000 shares of stock outstanding and one person owns 100 shares, that person would own and have claim to 10% of the company's assets.

Investopedia explains Equity Derivative
Investors can use equity derivatives to hedge the risk associated with taking a position in stock by setting limits to the losses incurred by either a short or long position in a company's shares. The investor receives this insurance by paying the cost of the derivative contract, which is referred to as a premium. If an investor purchases a stock, he or she can protect against a loss in share value by purchasing a put option. On the other hand, if the investor has shorted shares, he or she can hedge against a gain in share price by purchasing a call option

What Does Underlying Security Mean?
The security on which a derivative derives its value. For example, a call option on Google stock gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase Google stock at the price specified in the option contract. In this case, Google stock is the underlying security

Mr. Market Gives Its Updated Inflation Forecast

Results of this week's treasury auction

5 year conventional bond: 2.54 % yield
5 year TIP real yield    .55%

implied inflation forecast  1.99%

Thursday, April 22, 2010

About that Schwab Yield Plus Fund

WSJ reports:a settlement in the investor case (and a likely $60 million payday for the attorneys)

Charles Schwab Corp. agreed to pay $200 million to aggrieved investors who claimed the online discount broker had deceived them, but shares rose as investors had feared the final settlement costs would be much higher.
The San Francisco company agreed to pay out to customers in its Schwab YieldPlus Fund, which the plaintiffs said deceived them about the nature of short-term investments on which they posted losses when the credit crisis struck.
Plaintiffs had claimed more than $800 million in damages. Schwab didn't admit liability under the settlement, which needs final court approval.

And this time around Morninstar is urging investors to stay away from the fund....better late than never I guess: from the wsj article

In a research note in late January, Morningstar fund analyst Miriam Sjoblom questioned whether YieldPlus could offer steady returns in the future.
"As the managers have continued to sell bonds to meet redemptions—the now $300 million-in-assets fund has seen $11.6 billion in redemptions since mid-2007—the fund's portfolio mix has been altered, and not for the better," Ms. Sjoblom wrote. "Its top 10 holdings...took up more than half the fund's assets as of the latest portfolio from Aug. 31, 2008." She added that such a "lack of diversification should consign the fund to a bumpy road ahead."

Friday, April 16, 2010

A Good Reason to Keep It Simple In Bond Investments

 The Wsj has a good article reviewing issues related to some bond funds labeled as ultra short term which carry very high credit risk akin to a long term bond in their quest for higher yields.

Probably the most notable in this category is the Schwab Yield Plus Fund.

The Schwab yield plus fund is pretty notorious among the knowledgeable. It was promoted by Schwab as a cash alternative prior to fall 2008 and was adopted as such by both individual investors and advisors as well.

Much to the dismay of all involved the market dislocations of 2008 showed where those high yields came from: increased credit risk even though the duration of the funds holdings was kept short. Essentially the fund held longer term bonds of corporations of low credit quality. Through the use of interest rate swaps they reduced the sensitivity of the holdings to changes of interest rates making the duration (sensitivity of a bond to changes in interst rates) short akin to a short term bond. But since the underlying bonds were of low credit quality and long maturity they reacted to the credit crisis based on the maturity. This study explains this in more depth,  it is from a firm that advises the litigators in a current. At least class action legal action  .

Here's the performance from the Schwab website

Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment (pre-tax) Information Topic Icon

This graph represents the growth of a hypothetical investment of $10,000. It assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, and does not reflect sales loads, redemption fees or the effects of taxes on any capital gains and/or distributions.
Here's how it is described on the website
Investment Goal and Strategy
Seeks to provide a higher yield, with a higher related risk, than a money market fund, and relatively less risk than a longer-term bond fund. YieldPlus seeks to maintain an average portfolio duration of 1 year or less. This fund is not a money fund and its share price will continue to fluctuate.
no mention of the maturity credit risk issue

Morningstar waited till august 2008 to tell investors to dump the fund as reported by Business Week at the time.

my bolds and comments in blue

About Those Alleged Short-Term Funds...

Some Go Long on Bonds, Risk—Study

Two years after surprise losses in auction-rate securities pounded mutual funds, there is new evidence to suggest some funds may be mislabeling what they hold in their portfolios.
According to a study set to be released Thursday, some short- and ultra-short-term bond funds, which purport to invest in fixed-income securities with short maturities, hold long-term bonds as well, sharply increasing risks.....


The study, by Securities Litigation & Consulting Group, a Fairfax, Va., consulting firm that provides expert witnesses to regulators, law firms, banks and brokerages, examined bond funds' holdings in early 2008. The research showed that the weighted average maturity of ultra-short funds washttp://18 years—with 50% of the 43 funds having average maturities greater than 20 years—while the weighted average maturity of short-term bond funds was 12 years.
The credit risk in their long-term bond holdings caused many of the bond funds to post steep losses during the financial crisis later that year, according to the study. Funds that reported the steepest losses in 2008 generally owned securities with the longest average maturities unless the long-term holdings were mostly government securities.

The key problem is that the "effective duration" statistics does not reflect the credit risk in these funds which is the same as in many longer term funds.

And investors apparently can't rely on Morningstar to reflect this risk according to the article:

The issue at the center of the new paper is how bond funds report their "effective duration," a statistical measure of their sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Because many of these funds held floating-rate bonds or used derivatives to convert their fixed coupons to floating-rate coupons, they were able to report effective durations as short as three months—even though their 20- to 30-year average maturities would imply durations of 10 or 15 years, according to the study.Morningstar Inc,a research firm also uses the statistic to categorize funds 
"You've got these long-term bond portfolios that the industry and Morningstar are telling investors are short-term or ultra-short bond funds," said Mr. McCann. "But it's not true for a large portion of these funds. Many, in fact, have the credit risks of long-term bonds."
.
At one extreme, according to the paper, Charles Schwab Corp.'s YieldPlus Fund, classified as an ultra-short bond fund, had a weighted average maturity between 25 and 30 years. .".....

Although many of the funds have pared back their average maturities since 2008, some funds still hold long average maturities. At the end of 2009, for example, the AMF Ultra Short and Ultra Short Mortgage Funds, which hold mainly mortgage-backed securities, had average maturities of around 20 to 25 years, according to Mr. McCann.
The solution for investors to this dilemma is to choose etfs for their bond investments. These funds clearly stick to their label in terms of credit quality and their average effective duration deviates minimally from their average maturity. For example take these vanguard etfs:
short term investment grade corporate


for the intermediate fund the duration is 6.2 years and the maturity 7.2 years  no holdings rated below Baa

for the short term fund the duration number is 2.8 yrs the maturity 3.1 yrs

My Head Is Spinning Courtesy of the WSJ

WSJ March 20,2010

A Key Volatility Index That Says 'Buy' May Mean 'Bail' 

The stock market's most closely followed volatility index dropped this past week to its lowest level in nearly two years. Some investors who study volatility believe low readings are a bullish indicator for stocks. Historically, the market has tended to rise as volatility falls, and vice versa.
So the latest numbers are a surefire buy signal, right? Not necessarily. Dig a little deeper and you might even spot a contrarian indicator telling you to sell.

WSJ April 14,2010

Falling Volatility Doesn't Mean a Market Top Is Near 

The stock market seems a little too quiet to be near a significant peak.

When trends turn, it's usually after a period of increasing volatility, marked by spikes, drops and sharp intraday reversals. Both bulls and bears have a strong enough conviction to battle it out until one side is forced to capitulate. And that's certainly not the case at the moment.

I guess based on one day's market action one of these two writers would claim they were correct


Today the vix closed at 18.7  14.6% up for the day  Today's  trading range from  highto  low range was 16.1% remember from my previous post this represents an annualized number.

Using the formula in the march 25 post the  18.7  implied volatility represents a market view that the daily volatility has a 66% likelihood of being above 1.18% . Not at all unreasonable if extrapolating and managing option risk based on today's price action:

The S+P 500 closed down 1.6% today trading in a range of 2.13%

So in my view here is the message of the sharp move up in implied volatility: implied volatility moved up alot
  3mos vix and sp 500 charts are here