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Thursday, August 3, 2017

Mixed Messages


There can be long debates about whether or not political developments are important to the stock market, But the dichotomy between the performance of the US stock market and the dollar is attributed by many analysts to weakening confidence in the President. The dollar has experienced its largest decline since 2010-2011

Here is the SP 500 and the Dollar Index not that the dollar participated in what was called the "Trump rally" from election day through the end of 2016 but that the two have diverged completely since the beginning of this year. Ironically the stronger foreign currencies benefit US companies with a large percentage of sales abroad (weaker dollar/stronger foreign currency) which boosts profitability for companies with significant earnings abroad--generally large cap stocks.

SPY (brown) US Dollar Index (black)

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